Thekke Thumbath Shameer, Priyambada Routray, A. Udhayan, Nihar Ranjan, Manikka Govindan Ganesan, Arulmani Manimozhi, Dhayanithi Vasantha Kumari

Harnessing ensemble modelling to predict human-wild boar conflict risk zones in Tamil Nadu, India

Abstract Growing human populations and destruction of natural habitats intensify human-wildlife conflicts, particularly with wild boar (Sus scrofa). To minimize the conflicts and undertake mitigation measures predicting conflict risk zones and identifying the predictors is necessary. Accordingly, we conducted a study by collecting secondary data on conflicts across forest divisions of Tamil Nadu from 2016 to 2021. Of the 3301 incidents we collected, 94.4% were related to crop damage. Using ensemble modelling we predicted a conflict risk zone of approximately 79,753 km², which represents 61.34% of the total area of Tamil Nadu. Variables such as the human modification index and mean annual temperature contributed the most to model performance. Our model indicates that areas with cultivated lands close to the fringes of forests, especially in regions with a higher degree of human modification, have greater levels of conflict risk. The study’s outcome will help managers undertake proactive measures to mitigate HWBC in Tamil Nadu.

Doi https://doi.org/10.35513/21658005.2024.2.4

Keywords Agriculture; conflicts; conservation; ensemble modelling; southern India

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